Thursday, January 2, 2014

Stocks to Investors: Merry Christmas, Here’s Another Record for Your Stockings

On a day when almost nobody was trading, the major benchmarks eked out record highs anyway, behind gains in E.I. Du Pont De Nemours (DD), Caterpillar (CAT) and Walt Disney (DIS).

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The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 1,833.32 today–its 43rd record high this year–while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% to 16,357.55–its 49th record high in 2013–as E.I. Du Pont De Nemours rose 1.7% to $63.83, Caterpillar advanced 1.1% to $90.91 and Walt Disney finished up 0.8% at $73.83 after giving CEO Bob Iger a pay cut and adding a new board member–Twitter (TWTR) Chairman Jack Dorsey. Just three Dow components–Goldman Sachs (GS), Pfizer (PFE) and United Health Group (UNH) finished in the red.

Despite the gains, it could have been so much more, as today featured two “blowout numbers” that got little response, says Citigroup’s Steven Englander. He explains why that could be good news for risky assets come 2014:

Both durable goods and new home sales were well above expectations.  Core durable goods were up 4.5% m/m in November and revised up in October. To put in perspective the highest market estimate was 2.0% m/m…Net, net new homes sales for Q4 so far are 6% higher (not annualized) than where the market expected they would be.

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Market reaction…very little excitement…

The reason – liquidity and market interest are both close to zero.  Thursday should not be much better. There is a small chance of some catch up on Friday or Monday, possibly in Asia, but with most investors now focused on 2014, it may be January 2, 3 or even January 6 before active trading resumes. But with such good data and so little reaction, the New Year may start with a bang.

Consider that a thought to keep your portfolio warm at night.Happy Holidays.

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